High Levels of CO2 To Lead to Years of Rising Temperatures
Effects of severe drought in Africa, 2024. X/ @Laurieneuco
October 28, 2024 Hour: 10:52 am
Even if emissions were quickly reduced to net zero, it would take decades to lower current temperature levels.
On Monday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that greenhouse gas concentrations broke all previous records again in 2023. The primary of these gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), increased by 11.4 percent over the past two decades.
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According to the annual report on greenhouse gas concentrations, published by the UN agency two weeks before the Climate Summit in Baku, CO2 levels reached 420 parts per million last year, a 151 percent increase over pre-industrial levels (before 1750).
Concentrations of methane were measured at 1,934 parts per billion, and nitrous oxide at 336.9 parts per billion, the other two gases responsible for global warming, with levels up by 265 percent and 125 percent from pre-industrial levels, respectively.
“Another year, another record. This should sound all the alarms for decision-makers; there’s no doubt that we are very far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels,” emphasized WMO Secretary Celeste Saulo.
Carbon dioxide (CO2), estimated to contribute about 64 percent to global warming and primarily derived from fossil fuel burning and cement production, rose by 2.3 parts per million in 2023 compared to 2022, a figure higher than the previous year though lower than the three years before that.
Seventh Year with Highest Emissions from Wildfires Since 2003
This increase was partly influenced by the transition from the La Niña to the El Niño phenomenon (the latter associated with rising Pacific Ocean temperatures) and a disastrous wildfire season, with CO2 emissions 16 percent higher than the average of previous years, including large forest fires in countries like Canada and Australia.
Methane and nitrous oxide, produced by natural causes but also human activities such as agriculture, livestock farming, and biomass burning, experienced smaller concentration increases than in 2022.
The last time Earth experienced a concentration of carbon dioxide comparable to today’s was three to five million years ago, when the temperature was 2 to 3 degrees warmer, and sea levels were 10 to 20 centimeters higher than they are today.
The UN’s meteorological agency warns that even if emissions were quickly reduced to net zero (i.e., offset by absorption phenomena like those provided by forests), it would take decades to lower current temperature levels due to the long-lasting presence of CO2 in the atmosphere.
A Phenomenon That Could Accelerate
The WMO also warns of the risk that the rise in concentrations of gases causing global warming could become increasingly intense.
“Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, while rising ocean temperatures could reduce their CO2 absorption capacity, leading to more CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere and accelerating global warming,” noted WMO Deputy Secretary Ko Barrett.
Slightly less than half of carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere, about a quarter is absorbed by the oceans, and around 30 percent by land ecosystems, although these percentages vary due to phenomena like La Niña or El Niño.
teleSUR/ JF Source: EFE
